SHFE Tin Maintains High-Level Sideways Trading in Afternoon Session, Supply Disruptions and Macro Sentiment Resonate to Push Up Tin Prices [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on November 12, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) extended its gains from the night session, closing at 291,670 yuan/mt at midday and temporarily holding above the key 290,000-yuan threshold, hitting a recent high. LME tin also performed strongly, with the three-month tin futures contract closing overnight at $36,695/mt, up 1.42%, after hitting an intraday high of $36,785/mt, also reaching a near two-week peak.

Today's tin price rise was mainly driven by two factors. Macro perspective, the US Senate's passage of the Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act marked a key step toward ending the government shutdown, improving market risk appetite. Meanwhile, US October ADP employment data showed a decline of 45,000, the largest drop in two and a half years, further strengthening expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December. The US dollar index pulled back to around 99.5, supporting the US dollar-denominated nonferrous metals sector. Supply-side disruptions served as a more direct catalyst. Data from Indonesia's Trade Ministry showed October refined tin exports were only 2,643.05 mt, a significant YoY drop of 53.89%, intensifying market concerns over global tin supply tightness.

Overall, the current strength in tin prices primarily stems from the combined effect of improved macro sentiment and short-term supply tightness expectations. The afternoon trend requires close attention to changes in capital sentiment; currently, the concentration of long positions in the most-traded SHFE tin contract has increased, and the SHFE/LME price ratio has led to widened import losses, curbing the inflow of overseas supplies, which may continue to support domestic prices in the short term. However, given the inhibitory effect of high prices on actual consumption and the absence of strong fundamental drivers, the room for sustained significant upside in tin prices may be limited, and prices are expected to hover at highs during the afternoon session.